The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Houston Astros v Washington Nationals

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Astros (Local)

Prediction 55.41%1.80fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.49%55.27%56.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.711.731.7761.35%58.35%57.80%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Nationals (Visit)

Prediction 44.59%2.24fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.01%44.51%44.73%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.142.152.1748.78%46.80%46.51%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Astros (Local): 55.41%; Washington Nationals (Visit): 44.59%. For Houston Astros (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.77, with an expected value of -1.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.93%E -1.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.35%E -3.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 15:25
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.59%E -2.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.13%E -1.92%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 21:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.59%E -2.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.13%E -1.92%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 16:09
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.59%E -2.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.13%E -1.92%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 20:50
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.59%E -2.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.57%E -2.14%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 13:25
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.59%E -2.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.57%E -2.14%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 20:50
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.59%E -2.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.58%E -4.19%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 21:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.15%E -2.40%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.23%E -1.49%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 21:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.15%E -2.40%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.23%E -1.49%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 21:35
BetAnything🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.15%E -2.40%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.23%E -1.49%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 21:35
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.25%E -3.07%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.13%E -1.92%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 13:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.25%E -3.07%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.57%E -2.14%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 13:25
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.25%E -3.07%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.35%E -3.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 13:25
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.68%E -1.70%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 13:25
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.36%E -3.76%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.35%E -3.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 21:05
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.47%E -4.47%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.35%E -3.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 20:15
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -9.69%E -5.94%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -3.68%E -1.70%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 20:15
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -9.69%E -5.94%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -3.68%E -1.70%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-03-12 21:55
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%1.9%2026-03-12 21:40
ProphetX◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%2.3%2026-03-12 21:20