The School of Odds
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Houston Astros v St. Louis Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 16:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Astros (Local)

Prediction 55.70%1.80fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -4.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.96%55.67%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.711.7461.73%58.72%58.48%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 44.30%2.26fair odd
EV +1.89%
Edge +0.823%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%44.04%44.33%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.172.162.3048.78%46.13%46.30%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Astros (Local): 55.70%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visit): 44.30%. For St. Louis Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +1.89%E +0.823%K +1.46%G +0.028%3.4%2026-03-22 10:08
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -0.323%E -0.143%K -0.258%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 09:14
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.75%E -2.78%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-22 13:14
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 15:10
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.42%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 15:55
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.42%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 15:54
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -3.42%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 14:44
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -3.64%E -2.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.87%E -1.78%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-22 15:55
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.33%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 15:43
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 12:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 12:54
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 12:54
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.75%E -2.78%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 16:00
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.20%E -2.43%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 15:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.75%E -2.78%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.20%E -2.43%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 12:48
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.97%E -3.32%K -6.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 15:40
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.18%E -4.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 12:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.2%2026-03-22 15:45
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%2.2%2026-03-22 15:59
Novig◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.99%3.8%2026-03-22 15:55