The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Houston Astros v New York Mets

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Astros (Local)

Prediction 53.55%1.87fair odd
EV -0.937%
Edge -0.507%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%53.54%53.49%56.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.781.801.8558.48%56.09%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 46.45%2.15fair odd
EV +1.27%
Edge +0.581%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.96%46.46%46.51%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1851.28%48.98%48.78%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Astros (Local): 53.55%; New York Mets (Visit): 46.45%. For New York Mets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +1.27%E +0.581%K +1.07%G +0.014%4.4%2026-03-14 21:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.22%E -2.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.45%E -1.17%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 18:10
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.29%E -3.60%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.45%E -1.17%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 18:05
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -5.22%E -2.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -3.38%E -1.62%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-14 21:58
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -3.61%E -2.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.84%E -1.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 21:55
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.61%E -2.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.77%E -2.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 21:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.61%E -2.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.77%E -2.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.61%E -2.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.77%E -2.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 21:20
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.61%E -2.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.77%E -2.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 17:40
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.22%E -2.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.77%E -2.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 18:05
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.83%E -3.92%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.77%E -2.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 18:05
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -4.77%E -2.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 21:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.61%E -2.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.17%E -3.05%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 21:39
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.01%E -1.10%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.09%E -3.55%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-14 12:30
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.83%E -3.92%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.09%E -3.55%K -7.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 21:25
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.937%E -0.507%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.42%E -4.83%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 22:00
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.937%E -0.507%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.42%E -4.83%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 22:00
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.61%E -2.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.42%E -4.83%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 21:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.16%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.84%1.8%2026-03-14 22:00
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%1.9%2026-03-14 21:50
Novig◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%2.6%2026-03-14 21:50