The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Houston Astros v Miami Marlins

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Astros (Local)

Prediction 55.44%1.80fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.739%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.65%55.29%55.46%56.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.731.721.7859.17%57.87%58.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miami Marlins (Visit)

Prediction 44.56%2.24fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.896%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.67%44.71%44.54%46.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.132.152.2048.78%47.04%46.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Astros (Local): 55.44%; Miami Marlins (Visit): 44.56%. For Houston Astros (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.78, with an expected value of -1.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -1.31%E -0.739%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -8.21%E -3.98%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 14:19
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -1.31%E -0.739%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -8.21%E -3.98%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 14:20
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.53%E -2.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.20%E -1.95%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-07 16:50
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.53%E -2.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.64%E -2.17%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-07 15:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.09%E -2.36%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.31%E -1.52%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 16:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.20%E -3.04%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -1.97%E -0.896%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.20%E -3.04%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.20%E -1.95%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 13:54
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.20%E -3.04%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.43%E -3.06%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 16:50
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -6.30%E -3.73%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -2.86%E -1.31%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 13:53
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.30%E -3.73%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 16:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.2%2026-03-07 17:00
Novig◎1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%4.6%2026-03-07 16:59