The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Houston Astros v Baltimore Orioles

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Astros (Local)

Prediction 56.68%1.76fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -4.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.76%56.74%58.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.681.691.7161.73%59.43%59.17%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 43.32%2.31fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -0.963%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.98%43.24%43.26%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.202.202.2847.62%45.41%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Astros (Local): 56.68%; Baltimore Orioles (Visit): 43.32%. For Baltimore Orioles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.28, with an expected value of -1.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.08%E -1.80%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-10 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.08%E -1.80%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-10 14:25
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.08%E -1.80%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-10 14:20
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.08%E -1.80%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -5.56%E -2.55%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-10 15:59
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.08%E -1.80%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-10 14:20
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -3.40%E -1.52%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-10 14:45
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-10 14:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.53%E -1.13%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-10 14:20
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -3.83%E -1.73%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 14:19
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-10 14:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.21%E -2.49%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.56%E -2.55%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 14:18
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -3.83%E -1.73%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 14:20
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-10 14:15
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-10 14:55
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -6.48%E -3.93%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -1.23%E -0.540%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-10 14:20
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -6.48%E -3.93%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -1.23%E -0.540%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-10 14:20
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.48%E -3.93%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-10 16:05
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.18%E -5.05%K -13.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-10 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.25%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.75%2.1%2026-03-10 17:00
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.2%2026-03-10 16:55
Novig◎1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%3.3%2026-03-10 17:00