The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Detroit Tigers v Toronto Blue Jays

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Tigers (Local)

Prediction 67.21%1.49fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -4.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.97%67.34%67.47%69.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.421.4673.53%70.72%70.42%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Blue Jays (Visit)

Prediction 32.79%3.05fair odd
EV +1.63%
Edge +0.527%
Kelly +0.778%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%32.66%32.53%34.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.922.923.1035.71%34.27%34.19%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Tigers (Local): 67.21%; Toronto Blue Jays (Visit): 32.79%. For Toronto Blue Jays (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -7.24%E -5.25%K -19.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +1.63%E +0.527%K +0.778%G +0.013%4.7%2026-03-01 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.56%E -3.21%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.64%E -0.548%K -0.822%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-01 16:04
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.56%E -3.21%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.64%E -0.548%K -0.822%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-01 16:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.59%E -6.31%K -23.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -1.64%E -0.548%K -0.822%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 17:09
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.56%E -3.21%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.28%E -1.11%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-01 16:34
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.90%E -4.21%K -14.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.92%E -1.70%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-01 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.97%EV -1.87%E -1.28%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.03%EV -7.22%E -2.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-01 17:54
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.21%E -2.23%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.20%E -2.93%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 17:09
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.21%E -2.23%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.20%E -2.93%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 17:09
Fliff🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.90%E -4.21%K -14.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.20%E -2.93%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 16:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.37%2.0%2026-03-01 17:34
Novig◎1.45I 68.97%NM 66.44%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.56%3.8%2026-03-01 18:00