The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Tigers (Local)

Prediction 59.82%1.67fair odd
EV -0.096%
Edge -0.057%
Kelly -0.143%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.18%59.54%59.67%60.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.601.6763.69%62.15%62.31%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 40.18%2.49fair odd
EV -0.361%
Edge -0.145%
Kelly -0.244%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%40.46%40.33%42.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.362.352.4844.84%42.43%42.46%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Tigers (Local): 59.82%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit): 40.18%. For Detroit Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.672. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.670, with an expected value of -0.096%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -0.096%E -0.057%K -0.143%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -10.41%E -4.67%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 17:30
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -0.096%E -0.057%K -0.143%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -10.41%E -4.67%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 17:30
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.09%E -1.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -5.18%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:50
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.69%E -2.29%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.58%E -2.38%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 17:54
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.69%E -2.29%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.58%E -2.38%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -4.28%E -2.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -0.361%E -0.145%K -0.244%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-07 17:59
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.28%E -2.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.57%E -1.49%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-07 17:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.08%E -3.87%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.57%E -0.639%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 17:54
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -6.08%E -3.87%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -2.77%E -1.15%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 17:50
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.08%E -3.87%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.59%E -3.30%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.0%2026-03-07 17:59
Novig◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%3.0%2026-03-07 17:59