The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Tigers (Local)

Prediction 58.44%1.71fair odd
EV -0.646%
Edge -0.380%
Kelly -0.924%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.41%58.48%58.44%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.641.651.7062.89%60.83%60.79%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 41.56%2.41fair odd
EV +0.983%
Edge +0.404%
Kelly +0.687%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%41.52%41.56%43.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.292.302.4345.45%43.64%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Tigers (Local): 58.44%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit): 41.56%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.983%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -7.08%E -4.45%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV +0.983%E +0.404%K +0.687%G +0.007%4.0%2026-03-13 15:19
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -5.32%E -3.29%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.264%E -0.110%K -0.188%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-13 20:10
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -5.32%E -3.29%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -1.93%E -0.816%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 17:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-13 20:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-13 20:14
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -3.57%E -2.16%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-13 21:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.40%E -1.44%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-13 17:14
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.40%E -1.44%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-13 15:14
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.32%E -3.29%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 17:10
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.32%E -3.29%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 17:14
MyBookie.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.15%E -2.53%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -5.25%E -2.30%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-13 17:13
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.24%EV -5.67%E -2.50%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 21:25
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.32%E -3.29%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 17:14
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.91%E -3.67%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-13 21:09
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.91%E -3.67%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-13 18:45
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -0.646%E -0.380%K -0.924%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 18:40
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -0.646%E -0.380%K -0.924%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 18:40
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.40%E -1.44%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 20:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.2%2026-03-13 21:45
ProphetX◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%2.3%2026-03-13 20:40
Novig◎1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%3.2%2026-03-13 21:50