The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Tigers (Local)

Prediction 59.85%1.67fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -4.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%59.85%59.85%61.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.591.6265.36%62.92%62.89%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Phillies (Visit)

Prediction 40.15%2.49fair odd
EV -0.025%
Edge -0.010%
Kelly -0.017%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.97%40.15%40.15%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.382.402.4943.48%41.99%41.67%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Tigers (Local): 59.85%; Philadelphia Phillies (Visit): 40.15%. For Philadelphia Phillies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.491. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.490, with an expected value of -0.025%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.04%E -1.88%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.64%E -1.52%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-16 13:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.04%E -1.88%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.65%E -2.40%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-16 14:25
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.04%E -1.88%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.65%E -3.33%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-16 14:24
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -3.64%E -2.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -2.43%E -1.00%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-16 16:40
Caesars🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.64%E -2.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.64%E -1.52%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-16 14:53
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV -4.24%E -2.65%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -3.24%E -1.34%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-16 17:00
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.24%E -2.65%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.64%E -1.52%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-16 15:15
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -4.24%E -2.65%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -5.24%E -2.22%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 14:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.84%E -3.04%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -0.025%E -0.010%K -0.017%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-16 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.84%E -3.04%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -0.025%E -0.010%K -0.017%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-16 16:40
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.84%E -3.04%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.64%E -1.52%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 16:40
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.84%E -3.04%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.65%E -3.33%K -5.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-16 16:05
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.84%E -3.04%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.65%E -3.33%K -5.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-16 14:25
Bovada🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -5.44%E -3.44%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -2.84%E -1.17%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 16:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -6.04%E -3.84%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -2.84%E -1.17%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-16 15:25
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.04%E -3.84%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.65%E -3.33%K -5.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 15:50
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -8.43%E -5.51%K -15.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -5.65%E -2.40%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-16 15:44
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -8.43%E -5.51%K -15.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -5.65%E -2.40%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-16 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65%1.9%2026-03-16 16:15
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.0%2026-03-16 16:50
Novig◎1.59I 62.89%NM 60.25%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.75%4.4%2026-03-16 16:00