The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Detroit Tigers v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Tigers (Local)

Prediction 60.36%1.66fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.834%
Kelly +2.06%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.70%59.97%60.65%61.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.601.591.6864.94%62.42%62.89%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 39.64%2.52fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.681%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.31%40.03%39.35%43.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.372.402.4845.45%42.23%41.67%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Tigers (Local): 60.36%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 39.64%. For Detroit Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV +1.40%E +0.834%K +2.06%G +0.029%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -12.79%E -5.81%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-06 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV +1.40%E +0.834%K +2.06%G +0.029%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -12.79%E -5.81%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-06 17:50
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -1.62%E -0.992%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -6.84%E -2.91%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.82%E -1.75%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.88%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-06 18:00
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.82%E -1.75%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.84%E -2.91%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 15:50
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.88%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-06 16:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.88%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-06 14:05
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.82%E -3.84%K -6.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 17:50
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.84%E -3.74%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.88%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 14:05
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -7.05%E -4.58%K -13.05%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -1.69%E -0.681%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-03-06 18:00
Novig◎1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%5.9%2026-03-06 17:40