The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Detroit Tigers v Atlanta Braves

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Tigers (Local)

Prediction 61.22%1.63fair odd
EV -0.831%
Edge -0.513%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.70%61.13%61.04%62.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.561.6266.67%64.35%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlanta Braves (Visit)

Prediction 38.78%2.58fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.898%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.78%38.87%38.96%40.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.442.442.5241.67%40.90%40.98%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Tigers (Local): 61.22%; Atlanta Braves (Visit): 38.78%. For Detroit Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.62, with an expected value of -0.831%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -0.831%E -0.513%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -6.92%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-02 17:59
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.67%E -1.68%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.92%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-02 17:58
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -3.28%E -2.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -4.20%E -1.70%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-02 17:49
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.89%E -2.48%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.98%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-02 17:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.50%E -2.89%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.04%E -1.22%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-02 16:09
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.50%E -2.89%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.98%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-02 16:09
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -6.34%E -4.14%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -2.26%E -0.898%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-02 16:14
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.34%E -4.14%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.92%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-02 17:04
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -8.18%E -5.45%K -16.35%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -5.75%E -2.37%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-02 16:20
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -8.18%E -5.45%K -16.35%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -5.75%E -2.37%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-02 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-03-02 15:45
Novig◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%2.0%2026-03-02 17:54