The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 57.24%1.75fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -3.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.41%57.34%57.11%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.671.681.7061.73%59.94%59.52%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Francisco Giants (Visit)

Prediction 42.76%2.34fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.721%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%42.66%42.89%43.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.222.3046.51%44.82%45.05%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 57.24%; San Francisco Giants (Visit): 42.76%. For San Francisco Giants (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -1.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -2.69%E -1.58%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -5.08%E -2.29%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-10 16:20
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.69%E -1.58%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.93%E -2.70%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-10 19:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.26%E -1.93%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-10 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.26%E -1.93%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-10 19:40
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.26%E -1.93%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-10 19:40
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.26%E -1.93%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -5.08%E -2.29%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 19:24
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.26%E -1.93%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -5.08%E -2.29%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 16:08
MyBookie.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.83%E -2.28%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.93%E -2.70%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 19:45
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.83%E -2.28%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.93%E -2.70%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 13:30
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.83%E -2.28%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.93%E -2.70%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 13:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.41%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.66%E -0.721%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-10 16:25
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.41%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.66%E -0.721%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-10 15:29
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.41%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.93%E -2.70%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-10 15:30
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 16:25
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.66%E -0.721%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-10 16:25
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-10 16:25
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.93%E -2.70%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-10 19:10
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -8.07%E -3.75%K -7.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-10 19:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-03-10 20:01
ProphetX◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%2.6%2026-03-10 19:35
Novig◎1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%2.9%2026-03-10 20:00