The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cleveland Guardians v Milwaukee Brewers

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 56.28%1.78fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.862%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.78%56.15%56.33%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.701.701.7560.61%58.82%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milwaukee Brewers (Visit)

Prediction 43.72%2.29fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%43.85%43.67%45.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.172.182.2247.62%45.98%45.87%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 56.28%; Milwaukee Brewers (Visit): 43.72%. For Cleveland Guardians (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.75, with an expected value of -1.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -1.51%E -0.862%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -6.00%E -2.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-13 00:55
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -1.51%E -0.862%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -7.32%E -3.45%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 00:53
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.07%E -1.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.00%E -2.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 13:30
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.76%E -2.20%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.82%E -1.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 22:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.76%E -2.20%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.82%E -1.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 19:09
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.76%E -2.20%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.69%E -2.15%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-12 22:05
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.76%E -2.20%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.19%E -3.90%K -7.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 23:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -4.32%E -2.54%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -2.94%E -1.33%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 23:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -4.32%E -2.54%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -2.94%E -1.33%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 23:20
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.32%E -2.54%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.82%E -1.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-12 22:00
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.89%E -2.89%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.69%E -2.15%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 03:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.89%E -2.89%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.69%E -2.15%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 13:15
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.89%E -2.89%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.00%E -2.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-12 10:45
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.45%E -3.24%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.82%E -1.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 13:15
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.45%E -3.24%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.82%E -1.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 13:15
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.01%E -3.60%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.82%E -1.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 02:34
ReBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.01%E -3.60%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.00%E -2.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-13 00:05
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.00%E -2.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-12 23:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-03-13 00:25
ProphetX◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%2.3%2026-03-13 00:55
Novig◎1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%3.0%2026-03-13 01:00