The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cleveland Guardians v Los Angeles Dodgers

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 49.64%2.01fair odd
EV -0.716%
Edge -0.358%
Kelly -0.716%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%49.72%49.55%51.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.921.912.0054.64%52.08%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Visit)

Prediction 50.36%1.99fair odd
EV +0.213%
Edge +0.107%
Kelly +0.215%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.04%50.28%50.45%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.891.901.9955.56%52.99%52.63%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 49.64%; Los Angeles Dodgers (Visit): 50.36%. For Los Angeles Dodgers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.986. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.990, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.213%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -8.66%E -4.71%K -10.31%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV +0.213%E +0.107%K +0.215%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 19:50
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -6.18%E -3.27%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -2.81%E -1.46%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-03 19:50
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.18%E -2.71%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.82%E -2.00%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-03 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.18%E -2.71%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.82%E -2.00%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-03 15:25
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.16%E -5.00%K -11.03%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.82%E -2.00%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 19:49
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -2.70%E -1.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -4.82%E -2.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-03 20:01
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.20%E -1.64%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.83%E -3.12%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-03 15:25
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.716%E -0.358%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.84%E -4.29%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 19:45
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.716%E -0.358%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.84%E -4.29%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 19:45
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.18%E -2.71%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.36%E -5.20%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-03 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-03-03 20:01
Novig◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%2.4%2026-03-03 20:00