The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cleveland Guardians v Los Angeles Angels

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 58.99%1.70fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.890%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.18%58.76%59.00%59.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.631.621.6762.11%61.27%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Los Angeles Angels (Visit)

Prediction 41.01%2.44fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.60%41.24%41.00%42.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.322.3745.45%43.42%43.10%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 58.99%; Los Angeles Angels (Visit): 41.01%. For Cleveland Guardians (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -1.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -1.49%E -0.890%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -8.55%E -3.83%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -1.49%E -0.890%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -8.55%E -3.83%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.67%E -1.62%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.63%E -1.54%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-06 18:40
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -4.44%E -2.74%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -2.81%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 20:00
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.44%E -2.74%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.22%E -1.36%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-06 18:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.44%E -2.74%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.63%E -1.54%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-06 17:13
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.44%E -2.74%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.68%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-06 17:15
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.44%E -2.74%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.68%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-06 19:59
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.44%E -2.74%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.78%E -4.44%K -8.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 20:00
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -5.03%E -3.12%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.04%E -1.73%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 17:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-03-06 20:00
Novig◎1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%4.3%2026-03-06 19:50