The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cleveland Guardians v Cincinnati Reds

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 53.91%1.85fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.736%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.90%54.09%56.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.771.771.8358.48%56.46%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visit)

Prediction 46.09%2.17fair odd
EV +0.478%
Edge +0.219%
Kelly +0.405%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.96%46.10%45.91%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.062.062.1851.28%48.58%48.54%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 53.91%; Cincinnati Reds (Visit): 46.09%. For Cincinnati Reds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.478%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -7.82%E -4.57%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +0.478%E +0.219%K +0.405%G +0.002%4.4%2026-03-22 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.58%E -2.59%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.21%E -1.53%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.58%E -2.59%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.21%E -1.53%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 17:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.58%E -2.59%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.21%E -1.53%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 17:40
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.12%E -2.91%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -3.21%E -1.53%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 18:59
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.66%E -3.23%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.21%E -1.53%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 17:45
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.66%E -3.23%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.21%E -1.53%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 17:45
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.20%E -3.56%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.21%E -1.53%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 17:40
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -4.58%E -2.59%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -4.59%E -2.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 18:55
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.20%E -3.56%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.51%E -2.69%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 17:40
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.82%E -4.57%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -5.51%E -2.69%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 18:10
DraftKings🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -1.89%E -1.04%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -6.90%E -3.41%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-22 18:54
FanDuel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -2.42%E -1.34%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -6.90%E -3.41%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 18:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -2.42%E -1.34%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -7.36%E -3.66%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 17:44
BetAnything🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.35%E -0.736%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.82%E -3.91%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.35%E -0.736%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.82%E -3.91%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 17:45
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.20%E -3.56%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.82%E -3.91%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 19:00
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.96%E -1.65%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.12%E -5.19%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%2.1%2026-03-22 19:00
Novig◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%2.4%2026-03-22 18:50
ProphetX◎1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%3.7%2026-03-22 19:00