The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 60.75%1.65fair odd
EV -0.984%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.52%60.54%60.55%61.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.581.571.6364.94%63.25%63.69%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)

Prediction 39.25%2.55fair odd
EV -0.687%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.449%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.29%39.46%39.45%41.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.402.5343.48%41.58%41.67%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 60.75%; Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit): 39.25%. For Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.53, with an expected value of -0.687%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -0.984%E -0.604%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -9.72%E -4.22%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-23 16:45
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -0.984%E -0.604%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -9.72%E -4.22%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-23 16:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.41%E -2.15%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.79%E -2.41%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-23 16:19
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.02%E -2.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.79%E -2.41%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-23 19:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -4.63%E -2.95%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -0.687%E -0.271%K -0.449%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-23 19:55
BetUS🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.63%E -2.95%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.83%E -1.56%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-23 19:55
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.63%E -2.95%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -5.00%E -2.07%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-23 16:20
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.63%E -2.95%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.79%E -2.41%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-23 16:19
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.24%E -3.36%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.86%E -0.746%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-23 19:45
Fliff🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -6.45%E -4.19%K -11.95%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.75%E -3.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-23 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.