The School of Odds
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Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Prediction 55.07%1.82fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.77%55.05%55.12%55.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.741.741.7859.17%57.56%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milwaukee Brewers (Visit)

Prediction 44.93%2.23fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.65%44.95%44.88%46.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.112.122.1548.78%47.37%47.17%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 55.07%; Milwaukee Brewers (Visit): 44.93%. For Cincinnati Reds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.78, with an expected value of -1.97%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -7.00%E -3.38%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-11 19:59
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -3.07%E -1.75%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -4.30%E -2.02%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-11 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -3.62%E -2.07%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -4.30%E -2.02%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 20:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -3.62%E -2.07%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -4.30%E -2.02%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 20:00
BetAnything🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -3.62%E -2.07%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -4.30%E -2.02%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 20:00
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.17%E -2.40%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.41%E -1.58%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-11 16:53
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.17%E -2.40%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.41%E -1.58%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-11 16:49
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.17%E -2.40%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.41%E -1.58%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-11 16:55
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.17%E -2.40%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.85%E -1.80%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-11 16:50
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.17%E -2.40%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.75%E -2.24%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 19:55
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.17%E -2.40%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.75%E -2.24%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 19:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -4.17%E -2.40%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -5.20%E -2.47%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-11 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.17%E -2.40%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.65%E -2.69%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 16:55
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.17%E -2.40%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.90%E -3.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-11 20:00
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -4.75%E -2.24%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-11 16:50
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.65%E -2.69%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-11 16:50
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.90%E -3.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-11 19:10
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.93%E -4.10%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.90%E -3.85%K -7.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-11 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.98%1.2%2026-03-11 20:00
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%1.9%2026-03-11 20:00
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 53.61%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.39%3.6%2026-03-11 20:00