The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Prediction 53.98%1.85fair odd
EV +6.35%
Edge +3.22%
Kelly +6.55%
Growth +0.416%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.43%53.15%53.96%54.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.811.771.9757.14%55.16%56.50%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Visit)

Prediction 46.02%2.17fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%46.85%46.04%51.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.012.062.1154.05%49.65%48.54%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 53.98%; Los Angeles Dodgers (Visit): 46.02%. For Cincinnati Reds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.97, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV +6.35%E +3.22%K +6.55%G +0.416%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -14.87%E -8.04%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 19:40
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV +6.35%E +3.22%K +6.55%G +0.416%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -14.87%E -8.04%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 19:40
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -2.83%E -1.57%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -4.75%E -2.29%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-05 19:50
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -2.83%E -1.57%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-05 20:00
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 20:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 19:59
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 20:00
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.97%E -3.98%K -7.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-05 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -4.99%E -2.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -2.91%E -1.38%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-05 19:05
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.53%E -3.16%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-03-05 20:00
Novig◎1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%4.3%2026-03-05 20:00