The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cincinnati Reds v Athletics

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Prediction 55.06%1.82fair odd
EV -0.888%
Edge -0.494%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%54.89%55.15%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.741.751.8059.17%57.37%57.31%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletics (Visit)

Prediction 44.94%2.23fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.11%44.85%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.112.132.1551.28%47.45%47.06%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 55.06%; Athletics (Visit): 44.94%. For Cincinnati Reds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -0.888%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -0.888%E -0.494%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.88%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-09 20:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -0.888%E -0.494%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.88%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-09 20:00
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -0.888%E -0.494%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -12.37%E -6.34%K -13.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-09 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -3.09%E -1.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -4.28%E -2.01%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-09 20:00
BetAnything🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.64%E -2.08%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-09 20:00
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -3.64%E -2.08%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -4.73%E -2.23%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-09 19:54
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.64%E -2.08%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-09 16:45
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.64%E -2.08%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-09 16:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.19%E -2.41%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.38%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-09 14:09
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.19%E -2.41%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.38%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-09 19:59
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.19%E -2.41%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-09 19:55
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.84%E -3.42%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.38%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-09 15:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.84%E -3.42%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.38%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-09 12:40
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.84%E -3.42%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-09 00:55
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.95%E -4.11%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-09 20:00
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.95%E -4.11%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-09 19:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-03-09 19:50