The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Chicago White Sox v San Diego Padres

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago White Sox (Local)

Prediction 50.68%1.97fair odd
EV +1.37%
Edge +0.684%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.64%50.71%50.52%53.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.891.912.0056.50%52.85%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 49.32%2.03fair odd
EV +2.58%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +2.39%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.11%49.29%49.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.912.0855.56%52.11%52.36%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago White Sox (Local): 50.68%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 49.32%. For San Diego Padres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -9.78%E -5.50%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV +2.58%E +1.24%K +2.39%G +0.062%4.3%2026-03-03 20:01
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -10.29%E -5.81%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -1.37%E -0.684%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 20:00
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%EV -5.73%E -3.08%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -1.86%E -0.935%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-03 20:01
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.22%E -2.79%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.83%E -1.97%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-03 18:10
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.19%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-03 15:35
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.19%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-03 15:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.19%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-03 15:35
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV +1.37%E +0.684%K +1.37%G +0.019%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -10.24%E -5.63%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-03 19:45
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV +1.37%E +0.684%K +1.37%G +0.019%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -10.24%E -5.63%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-03 19:45
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -3.19%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -11.23%E -6.24%K -14.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-03 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%2.4%2026-03-03 20:00