The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Chicago White Sox v Cincinnati Reds

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago White Sox (Local)

Prediction 55.72%1.79fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.68%55.90%56.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.721.711.7659.17%58.24%58.48%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visit)

Prediction 44.28%2.26fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.59%44.32%44.10%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.142.162.2048.78%46.66%46.40%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago White Sox (Local): 55.72%; Cincinnati Reds (Visit): 44.28%. For Chicago White Sox (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.76, with an expected value of -1.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -1.93%E -1.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -5.69%E -2.67%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-25 19:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -2.49%E -1.42%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -5.69%E -2.67%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-25 19:39
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.04%E -1.75%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.23%E -4.50%K -8.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 19:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.72%E -2.76%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.59%E -1.18%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-25 16:44
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.72%E -2.76%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.80%E -2.23%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-25 16:40
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -4.72%E -2.76%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.23%E -4.50%K -8.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-25 19:19
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.27%E -3.10%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.59%E -1.18%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-25 16:40
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.27%E -3.10%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.47%E -1.59%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-25 18:59
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.27%E -3.10%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.47%E -1.59%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-25 19:00
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.83%E -3.45%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -4.36%E -2.02%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-25 16:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.