The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Chicago Cubs v Cleveland Guardians

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prediction 57.63%1.74fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.854%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.27%57.69%57.45%59.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.651.651.7162.89%60.46%60.61%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Guardians (Visit)

Prediction 42.37%2.36fair odd
EV +0.005%
Edge +0.002%
Kelly +0.003%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.70%42.31%42.55%43.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.262.262.3645.87%44.19%44.15%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Cubs (Local): 57.63%; Cleveland Guardians (Visit): 42.37%. For Cleveland Guardians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.3599. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.3600, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.005%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV +0.005%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-27 17:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -0.419%E -0.178%K -0.310%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-27 17:09
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.54%E -1.10%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 17:15
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.39%E -1.48%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-27 18:04
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.39%E -1.48%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-27 18:05
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -8.38%E -5.27%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -4.66%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 19:49
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -2.61%E -1.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -5.50%E -2.47%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-27 19:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -1.46%E -0.854%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-27 14:09
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-27 16:24
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -2.61%E -1.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -7.62%E -3.50%K -6.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 04:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.