The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Chicago Cubs v Arizona Diamondbacks

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prediction 56.56%1.77fair odd
EV -0.461%
Edge -0.262%
Kelly -0.607%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.64%56.51%56.56%58.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.691.7662.50%59.67%59.17%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)

Prediction 43.44%2.30fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.78%43.49%43.44%45.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.202.2347.62%45.70%45.45%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Cubs (Local): 56.56%; Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit): 43.44%. For Chicago Cubs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.76, with an expected value of -0.461%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -0.461%E -0.262%K -0.607%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -7.90%E -3.73%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-05 19:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.29%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.42%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-05 16:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.29%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.42%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-05 14:10
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.29%E -1.92%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.77%E -4.18%K -7.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 16:34
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.85%E -2.27%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.42%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-05 16:38
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.99%E -2.97%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.42%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 10:09
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.42%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 10:09
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.38%E -5.17%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.42%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 16:35
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -9.51%E -5.94%K -15.85%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -3.12%E -1.40%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-05 16:30
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -9.51%E -5.94%K -15.85%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -3.12%E -1.40%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-05 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%2.3%2026-03-05 19:25
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%3.0%2026-03-05 20:00