The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boston Red Sox (Local)

Prediction 67.51%1.48fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -6.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.43%67.76%66.74%69.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4473.53%71.20%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Blue Jays (Visit)

Prediction 32.49%3.08fair odd
EV +2.34%
Edge +0.744%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.16%32.24%33.26%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.952.893.1535.09%33.85%34.60%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boston Red Sox (Local): 67.51%; Toronto Blue Jays (Visit): 32.49%. For Toronto Blue Jays (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -8.19%E -6.02%K -22.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +2.34%E +0.744%K +1.09%G +0.026%5.3%2026-02-22 17:24
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -8.19%E -6.02%K -22.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +2.34%E +0.744%K +1.09%G +0.026%5.3%2026-02-22 17:24
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.84%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +0.720%E +0.232%K +0.343%G +0.002%4.7%2026-02-22 16:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 15:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -2.79%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -6.10%E -2.11%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-22 17:50
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.79%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-22 15:30
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.79%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-22 17:50
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.46%E -2.42%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-22 15:14
Fliff🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -6.16%E -4.43%K -15.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.