The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Boston Red Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-02-24 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boston Red Sox (Local)

Prediction 63.55%1.57fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -3.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.66%63.55%63.51%64.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.501.501.5467.11%66.51%66.67%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 36.45%2.74fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.728%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.73%36.45%36.49%37.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.622.642.6940.00%38.12%37.88%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boston Red Sox (Local): 63.55%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit): 36.45%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.69, with an expected value of -1.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -2.13%E -1.38%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-24 17:00
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -4.03%E -2.67%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -3.78%E -1.43%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-24 16:24
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.03%E -2.67%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.24%E -2.01%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-24 18:00
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.03%E -2.67%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.24%E -2.01%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-24 18:00
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.20%EV -4.67%E -3.11%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.80%EV -1.96%E -0.728%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-24 17:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.67%E -3.11%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.42%E -1.29%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-24 16:00
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.67%E -3.11%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.42%E -1.29%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-24 16:30
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.67%E -3.11%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.24%E -2.01%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 15:59
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -5.31%E -3.56%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -2.32%E -0.866%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-24 18:00
FanDuel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -5.31%E -3.56%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -3.78%E -1.43%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 15:59
Fliff🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -5.31%E -3.56%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-24 17:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.