The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Boston Red Sox v Philadelphia Phillies

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boston Red Sox (Local)

Prediction 59.74%1.67fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -4.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.52%59.66%59.40%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.601.611.6364.10%62.35%62.11%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Phillies (Visit)

Prediction 40.26%2.48fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.552%
Kelly -0.932%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%40.34%40.60%41.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.372.382.4543.48%42.12%42.11%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boston Red Sox (Local): 59.74%; Philadelphia Phillies (Visit): 40.26%. For Philadelphia Phillies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -1.35%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.63%E -1.61%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -7.39%E -3.21%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-09 16:45
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.63%E -1.61%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -7.39%E -3.21%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-09 16:45
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -3.23%E -1.99%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -4.57%E -1.93%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-09 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.23%E -1.99%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.38%E -2.29%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-09 11:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.83%E -2.38%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.35%E -0.552%K -0.932%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-09 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.83%E -2.38%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.35%E -0.552%K -0.932%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-09 16:59
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.83%E -2.38%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.35%E -0.552%K -0.932%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-09 17:00
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.83%E -2.38%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.38%E -2.29%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-09 00:59
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -3.83%E -2.38%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -5.78%E -2.47%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-09 12:05
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.42%E -2.76%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.36%E -1.40%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-09 16:53
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -5.02%E -3.16%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -2.16%E -0.888%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-09 13:22
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -5.02%E -3.16%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -2.56%E -1.06%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-09 13:24
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.02%E -3.16%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.36%E -1.40%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-09 15:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -5.02%E -3.16%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -4.17%E -1.75%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-09 13:34
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.02%E -3.16%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.39%E -3.21%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-09 16:09
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.81%E -4.37%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.39%E -3.21%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-09 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-03-09 16:55
Novig◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.59%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.41%2.4%2026-03-09 17:00