The School of Odds
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Baltimore Orioles v Washington Nationals

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 17:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 60.19%1.66fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -5.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.13%60.16%60.34%61.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.591.591.6164.94%63.03%62.89%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Nationals (Visit)

Prediction 39.81%2.51fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.90%39.84%39.66%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.412.4543.48%41.71%41.58%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 60.19%; Washington Nationals (Visit): 39.81%. For Washington Nationals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -2.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.10%E -1.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-22 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.10%E -1.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-22 17:04
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.10%E -1.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-22 17:05
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.10%E -1.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 17:05
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.10%E -1.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 17:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 17:09
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 17:04
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.30%E -2.71%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.26%E -1.34%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 17:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.30%E -2.71%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 17:04
BetMGM🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.30%E -2.71%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 17:10
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.30%E -2.71%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 17:05
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.40%EV -4.90%E -3.10%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.60%EV -4.05%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 17:09
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.50%E -3.51%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-22 17:04
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.85%EV -5.50%E -3.51%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.15%EV -2.86%E -1.17%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 17:28
ReBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.50%E -3.51%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 17:05
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.11%E -3.91%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 15:10
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.11%E -3.91%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 15:10
Fliff🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -7.31%E -4.75%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 17:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-03-22 17:20
ProphetX◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89%1.9%2026-03-22 17:25
Novig◎1.63I 61.35%NM 59.65%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.35%2.8%2026-03-22 17:25