The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 62.64%1.60fair odd
EV -0.399%
Edge -0.251%
Kelly -0.676%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.15%62.45%62.73%63.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.541.531.5966.23%64.98%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Rays (Visit)

Prediction 37.36%2.68fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.89%37.55%37.27%39.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.552.6041.67%39.57%39.22%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 62.64%; Tampa Bay Rays (Visit): 37.36%. For Baltimore Orioles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.59, with an expected value of -0.399%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -0.399%E -0.251%K -0.676%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -6.98%E -2.80%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-25 17:50
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -0.399%E -0.251%K -0.676%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -10.34%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-25 17:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-25 16:09
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-25 16:55
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-25 14:24
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-25 14:24
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.61%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-25 16:09
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.34%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 17:55
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.78%E -3.15%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-25 16:09
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -5.41%E -3.58%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -3.62%E -1.40%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-25 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.