The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Baltimore Orioles v St. Louis Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 59.06%1.69fair odd
EV +3.94%
Edge +2.24%
Kelly +5.18%
Growth +0.204%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.17%58.33%59.30%59.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.641.7662.50%60.42%61.16%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 40.94%2.44fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.40%41.67%40.70%45.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.272.332.3648.08%44.13%42.83%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 59.06%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visit): 40.94%. For Baltimore Orioles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV +3.94%E +2.24%K +5.18%G +0.204%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -14.84%E -7.13%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 18:00
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV +3.94%E +2.24%K +5.18%G +0.204%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -14.84%E -7.13%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -5.01%E -2.16%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-06 17:55
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 17:50
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -11.97%E -5.57%K -10.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.37%E -1.43%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-06 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.37%E -1.43%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-06 17:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.33%E -2.67%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-06 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.92%E -3.05%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 17:00
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -5.51%E -3.44%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -3.37%E -1.43%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-03-06 18:00
Novig◎1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-03-06 18:00