The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Baltimore Orioles v Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 56.59%1.77fair odd
EV +0.156%
Edge +0.088%
Kelly +0.203%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.03%56.68%56.56%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.691.7761.73%59.31%59.17%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 43.41%2.30fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%43.32%43.44%45.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.202.202.2548.08%45.47%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 56.59%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit): 43.41%. For Baltimore Orioles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.767. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.770, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.156%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV +0.156%E +0.088%K +0.203%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -9.70%E -4.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.24%E -1.89%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.49%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-11 16:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.24%E -1.89%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.49%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-11 16:25
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -3.24%E -1.89%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -4.92%E -2.25%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 16:05
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.24%E -1.89%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -5.36%E -2.46%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-11 16:00
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.24%E -1.89%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.83%E -4.20%K -8.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-11 16:24
BetAnything🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.80%E -2.24%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.62%E -1.63%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-11 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.80%E -2.24%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.49%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 16:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.37%E -2.59%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.32%E -1.03%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-11 16:35
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.37%E -2.59%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.49%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 16:49
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.49%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 16:25
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.49%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 16:35
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -6.07%E -3.66%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.32%E -1.03%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-11 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -6.07%E -3.66%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.32%E -1.03%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-11 16:50
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -6.07%E -3.66%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -2.75%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-11 16:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.07%E -3.66%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.19%E -1.43%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 16:40
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.49%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-11 16:35
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.49%E -2.04%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-11 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-03-11 16:35
ProphetX◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.25%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.75%1.1%2026-03-11 17:00
Novig◎1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%4.2%2026-03-11 16:55