The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Baltimore Orioles v Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 57.91%1.73fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -3.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.70%57.83%57.80%58.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.661.651.6861.73%60.40%60.61%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 42.09%2.38fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.460%
Kelly -0.801%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%42.17%42.20%43.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.252.252.3546.51%44.42%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 57.91%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit): 42.09%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -1.08%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.72%E -1.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 16:00
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.72%E -1.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 16:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.30%E -1.97%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.19%E -1.39%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 16:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.45%E -2.70%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.08%E -0.460%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-21 16:15
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.45%E -2.70%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.19%E -1.39%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-21 16:25
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -4.45%E -2.70%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -4.87%E -2.15%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 16:25
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.45%E -2.70%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 16:25
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.45%E -2.70%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 16:15
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.19%E -3.82%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-21 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.