The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Baltimore Orioles v Detroit Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 61.14%1.64fair odd
EV +1.49%
Edge +0.898%
Kelly +2.26%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%60.65%60.99%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.581.6665.36%62.74%63.09%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Detroit Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 38.86%2.57fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.35%39.01%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.382.452.5046.51%41.95%40.82%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 61.14%; Detroit Tigers (Visit): 38.86%. For Baltimore Orioles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.64. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.66, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +1.49%E +0.898%K +2.26%G +0.034%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -13.34%E -5.98%K -10.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-26 17:55
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +1.49%E +0.898%K +2.26%G +0.034%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -13.34%E -5.98%K -10.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-26 17:55
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV +0.880%E +0.533%K +1.35%G +0.012%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -16.45%E -7.65%K -14.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.79%E -1.75%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -3.24%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-26 16:25
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.79%E -1.75%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.73%E -2.81%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-26 16:29
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -3.40%E -2.15%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -4.40%E -1.79%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-26 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.01%E -2.55%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.79%E -1.96%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.01%E -2.55%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.79%E -1.96%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 16:17
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.85%E -3.80%K -10.82%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.63%E -1.46%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 16:14
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.85%E -1.14%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-26 16:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.