The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 57.14%1.75fair odd
EV +2.86%
Edge +1.59%
Kelly +3.58%
Growth +0.102%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%56.91%56.85%59.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.681.671.8062.11%59.41%59.88%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 42.86%2.33fair odd
EV +2.42%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.25%43.09%43.15%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.3948.78%45.65%45.45%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 57.14%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 42.86%. For Baltimore Orioles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV +2.86%E +1.59%K +3.58%G +0.102%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -12.15%E -5.93%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-16 17:18
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV +2.86%E +1.59%K +3.58%G +0.102%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -12.15%E -5.93%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-16 17:18
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +1.15%E +0.647%K +1.49%G +0.017%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -10.00%E -4.76%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-16 17:18
BetAnything🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV +0.574%E +0.326%K +0.756%G +0.004%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -9.15%E -4.31%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-16 17:20
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -1.71%E -0.995%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.33%EV -7.43%E -3.44%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-16 15:39
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.85%E -1.68%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-16 17:25
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.43%E -2.03%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.86%E -3.66%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-16 13:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.57%E -2.74%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.86%E -2.19%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.57%E -2.74%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 13:59
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.57%E -2.74%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 16:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.57%E -2.74%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.86%E -3.66%K -6.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-16 13:54
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.29%E -1.00%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 15:40
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.29%E -1.00%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 15:40
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.85%E -4.21%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.29%E -1.00%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-16 14:29
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -7.43%E -4.58%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV +0.710%E +0.302%K +0.526%G +0.004%4.3%2026-03-16 13:59
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.43%E -4.58%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 18:30
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -7.43%E -4.58%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -12.15%E -5.93%K -11.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-16 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -8.00%E -4.97%K -13.11%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV +2.42%E +1.01%K +1.74%G +0.042%4.0%2026-03-16 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-03-16 17:10
ProphetX◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%2.3%2026-03-16 15:25
Novig◎1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%7.3%2026-03-16 15:37