The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Baltimore Orioles v Atlanta Braves

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 63.39%1.58fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -3.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.20%63.36%63.41%64.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.511.501.5568.03%66.31%66.45%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlanta Braves (Visit)

Prediction 36.61%2.73fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.423%
Kelly -0.671%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.56%36.64%36.59%37.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.602.602.7039.22%38.40%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 63.39%; Atlanta Braves (Visit): 36.61%. For Atlanta Braves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -1.14%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -1.75%E -1.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -6.63%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-28 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.97%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 17:55
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-28 17:54
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.29%E -2.84%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.63%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 14:35
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.29%E -2.84%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.63%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 14:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.97%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-28 15:25
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 15:25
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -5.56%E -3.73%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -1.14%E -0.423%K -0.671%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-28 15:30
FanDuel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -5.56%E -3.73%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -3.34%E -1.26%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 15:25
Fliff🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.82%E -4.64%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -6.63%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.