The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Athletics v Cleveland Guardians

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Athletics (Local)

Prediction 60.87%1.64fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.34%60.84%60.95%62.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.571.561.6164.94%63.74%64.10%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Guardians (Visit)

Prediction 39.13%2.56fair odd
EV +0.553%
Edge +0.215%
Kelly +0.352%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.77%39.16%39.05%40.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.442.452.5742.55%40.91%40.82%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletics (Local): 60.87%; Cleveland Guardians (Visit): 39.13%. For Cleveland Guardians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.553%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV +0.553%E +0.215%K +0.352%G +0.002%3.0%2026-02-22 20:00
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.04%E -3.23%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.19%E -0.874%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-22 16:35
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.64%E -3.64%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.19%E -0.874%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-22 17:50
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.64%E -3.64%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.19%E -0.874%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-22 17:50
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.43%E -2.82%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.14%E -1.69%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-22 19:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.21%E -2.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.10%E -2.54%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-22 19:55
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -3.21%E -2.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -6.88%E -2.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-22 19:55
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -1.99%E -1.24%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -8.05%E -3.43%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-22 19:55
Fliff🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -6.25%E -4.06%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.05%E -3.43%K -5.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-22 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.