The School of Odds
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Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)

Prediction 51.58%1.94fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -4.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%51.68%51.51%52.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.841.831.8755.56%54.42%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 48.42%2.07fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.595%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.14%48.32%48.49%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.971.952.0452.36%50.88%51.28%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arizona Diamondbacks (Local): 51.58%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 48.42%. For San Diego Padres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.04, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.55%E -1.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.57%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 02:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.55%E -1.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.57%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 14:19
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.55%E -1.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.57%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 05:55
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.59%E -2.48%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.12%E -2.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 12:45
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.59%E -2.48%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.57%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 13:05
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.59%E -2.48%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.57%E -2.86%K -5.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 13:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -5.10%E -2.77%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.60%E -2.34%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 18:24
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.62%E -3.07%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.15%E -1.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 13:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.62%E -3.07%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.15%E -1.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 11:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.62%E -3.07%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.15%E -1.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 11:30
BetAnything🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.62%E -3.07%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.15%E -1.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 11:30
ReBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.62%E -3.07%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.51%E -3.93%K -8.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 19:15
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.62%E -3.07%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.51%E -3.93%K -8.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 12:04
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.62%E -3.07%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.51%E -3.93%K -8.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 14:00
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -6.13%E -3.37%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -1.21%E -0.595%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 16:05
Bovada🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -6.65%E -3.67%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -1.70%E -0.837%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-15 15:55
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.16%E -3.98%K -8.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.51%E -3.93%K -8.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 12:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-03-15 17:35
ProphetX◎1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%2.4%2026-03-15 19:40
Novig◎1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%4.6%2026-03-15 19:10