The School of Odds
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Arizona Diamondbacks v Milwaukee Brewers

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 01:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)

Prediction 50.89%1.97fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.03%51.05%52.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.871.871.9155.56%53.62%53.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milwaukee Brewers (Visit)

Prediction 49.11%2.04fair odd
EV -0.798%
Edge -0.395%
Kelly -0.782%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.26%48.97%48.95%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.941.942.0253.48%51.60%51.41%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arizona Diamondbacks (Local): 50.89%; Milwaukee Brewers (Visit): 49.11%. For Milwaukee Brewers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -0.798%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.25%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-20 19:13
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.25%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 23:19
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.25%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-20 07:09
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.33%E -2.30%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.22%E -2.70%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 23:43
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.24%E -2.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 21:10
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.24%E -2.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 21:10
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.24%E -2.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 21:15
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.24%E -2.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 13:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.73%E -2.44%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 21:24
ReBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.16%E -4.37%K -9.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 00:15
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.16%E -4.37%K -9.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 21:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -5.34%E -2.87%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -3.74%E -1.91%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -5.34%E -2.87%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -3.74%E -1.91%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 21:20
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -7.89%E -4.36%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -0.798%E -0.395%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 01:00
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -7.89%E -4.36%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -0.798%E -0.395%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 01:00
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.40%E -4.67%K -10.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.20%E -3.25%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-21 01:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-03-21 01:00
ProphetX◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%4.0%2026-03-20 20:15
Novig◎1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.86%9.0%2026-03-21 00:55