The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)

Prediction 49.90%2.00fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%49.95%50.00%51.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.891.901.9555.25%52.79%52.77%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visit)

Prediction 50.10%2.00fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.53%50.05%50.00%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.901.891.9553.48%52.69%52.91%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arizona Diamondbacks (Local): 49.90%; Cincinnati Reds (Visit): 50.10%. For Cincinnati Reds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.95, with an expected value of -2.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.70%E -1.39%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.30%E -3.37%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 19:39
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.70%E -1.39%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.30%E -3.37%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 17:30
DraftKings🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -3.70%E -1.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -5.30%E -2.81%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-16 18:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -3.70%E -1.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -5.30%E -2.81%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-16 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -3.70%E -1.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -5.30%E -2.81%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-16 19:45
BetAnything🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -3.70%E -1.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.80%E -3.09%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-16 19:49
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.70%E -2.46%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.30%E -2.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 23:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.70%E -2.46%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.30%E -2.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-16 14:14
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -5.20%E -2.74%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -2.30%E -1.18%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-16 20:00
FanDuel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -5.70%E -3.01%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -3.30%E -1.71%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-16 04:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -5.70%E -3.01%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -3.80%E -1.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-16 08:18
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -6.20%E -3.30%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -3.30%E -1.71%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-16 19:53
ReBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.70%E -3.58%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.37%K -7.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 19:15
Fliff🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.70%E -3.58%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.37%K -7.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 18:10
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.70%E -3.58%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.37%K -7.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 17:00
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.70%E -3.58%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.37%K -7.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 11:50
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -9.69%E -5.35%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -3.80%E -1.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-16 19:35
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -9.69%E -5.35%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -3.80%E -1.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-16 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-03-16 19:50
ProphetX◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%2.6%2026-03-16 19:55
Novig◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%4.2%2026-03-16 19:55