Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals v New York Mets

2026-09-26 20:05 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Predicción 45.02%2.22momio equitativo
EV -1.85%
Ventaja -0.850%
Kelly -1.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.30%45.08%45.05%45.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.992.122.122.1850.25%47.23%47.17%45.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

New York Mets (Visitante)

Predicción 54.98%1.82momio equitativo
EV -1.04%
Ventaja -0.578%
Kelly -1.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.20%54.92%54.95%55.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.731.731.8060.61%57.79%57.80%55.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Washington Nationals (Local): 45.02%; New York Mets (Visitante): 54.98%. Para New York Mets (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.82. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.80, con un valor esperado de -1.04%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -1.85%E -0.850%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -2.14%E -1.20%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-25 23:10
FanDuel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -2.75%E -1.27%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.34%E -2.49%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-25 18:20
GTbets🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.04%E -0.578%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-25 20:20
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.34%E -2.49%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 23:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.34%E -2.49%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 19:50
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.34%E -2.49%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 00:05
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 00:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 00:35
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 00:35
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.99%E -3.50%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 00:35
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.65%E -1.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-26 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.65%E -1.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-26 00:05
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.65%E -1.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-26 00:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.65%E -1.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-26 00:05
Bally Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.65%E -1.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-26 00:05
betPARX🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.65%E -1.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-26 00:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -4.10%E -1.93%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -1.04%E -0.578%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-25 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -4.10%E -1.93%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -1.04%E -0.578%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-25 18:20
Caesars🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -4.10%E -1.93%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -3.24%E -1.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-25 20:43
DraftKings🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -4.10%E -1.93%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -4.34%E -2.49%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-25 21:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.55%E -2.15%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 21:24
Bet Right🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.55%E -2.15%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 18:25
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.55%E -2.15%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-25 21:25
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.55%E -2.15%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-25 21:25
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -4.55%E -2.15%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.99%E -3.50%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 00:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -5.00%E -2.37%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 22:55
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.69%E -1.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-25 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.69%E -1.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-25 18:25
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.79%E -2.16%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-25 21:25
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.34%E -2.49%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 18:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 18:20
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 18:25
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 21:24
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 18:25
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 21:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 18:30
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 00:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.89%E -2.83%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 00:34
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 21:25
ReBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.99%E -3.50%K -8.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-25 21:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.54%E -3.85%K -9.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.54%E -3.85%K -9.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -5.90%E -2.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -5.44%E -3.16%K -7.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 21:27
Grosvenor🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.50%EV -6.80%E -3.29%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.50%EV -8.74%E -5.26%K -13.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -9.96%E -4.98%K -9.96%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -7.64%E -4.55%K -11.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-25 21:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.33%EV -10.41%E -5.23%K -10.51%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -9.29%E -5.63%K -14.29%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-25 21:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-09-26 00:00
Polymarket◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-09-26 00:35
Novig◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%1.9%2026-09-26 00:35
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%10.2%2026-09-25 21:30
ProphetX◎2.01I 49.75%NM 45.08%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.92%10.4%2026-09-26 00:34