Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees

Inicio: 2026-08-15 19:08 UTC

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 4–1 New York Yankees

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Predicción 36.80%2.72momio equitativo
EV +0.459%
Ventaja +0.168%
Kelly +0.266%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.63%36.75%36.82%38.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.592.602.7340.82%38.64%38.46%36.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

New York Yankees (Visitante)

Predicción 63.20%1.58momio equitativo
EV -0.773%
Ventaja -0.493%
Kelly -1.36%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.56%63.25%63.18%64.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.451.511.511.5768.97%66.04%66.23%63.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Toronto Blue Jays (Local): 36.80%; New York Yankees (Visitante): 63.20%. Para Toronto Blue Jays (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.72. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.73, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.459%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 36.07%EV +0.459%E +0.168%K +0.266%G +0.001%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.93%EV -2.67%E -1.73%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-15 18:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%EV -0.645%E -0.239%K -0.379%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%EV -1.41%E -0.901%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.1%2026-08-15 16:49
Caesars🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%EV -0.645%E -0.239%K -0.379%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-15 17:48
BetOnline.ag🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.26%EV -1.01%E -0.376%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.74%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-15 19:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.26%EV -1.01%E -0.376%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.74%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-15 18:59
BetAnything🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.10%EV -1.01%E -0.376%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.90%EV -3.93%E -2.59%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 18:59
FanDuel🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79%EV -1.38%E -0.515%K -0.822%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.21%EV -1.41%E -0.901%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-15 16:54
GTbets🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.34%EV -1.38%E -0.515%K -0.822%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.66%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-15 18:59
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.82%EV -2.12%E -0.796%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.18%EV -2.04%E -1.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-15 19:00
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.48%E -0.938%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 17:04
theScore Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -3.59%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -2.67%E -1.73%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 16:34
BetUS🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -3.59%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -2.67%E -1.73%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 18:59
Bovada🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -3.59%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 19:04
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.59%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 17:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.59%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 17:04
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -3.59%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -8.36%E -5.76%K -18.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:58
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -3.59%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -8.36%E -5.76%K -18.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:57
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.56%EV -3.96%E -1.52%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.44%EV -0.773%E -0.493%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-15 18:49
MyBookie.ag🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -3.96%E -1.52%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -3.93%E -2.59%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 16:43
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -2.04%E -1.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 17:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -2.04%E -1.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 17:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 16:29
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 16:30
ReBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 16:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 16:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 16:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 16:49
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.93%E -2.59%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 18:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.93%E -2.59%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 17:39
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 18:59
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 17:09
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 16:54
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 16:39
Fliff🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 19:00
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 18:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -4.32%E -1.66%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.09%E -4.83%K -15.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:39
Betsson🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -5.43%E -2.11%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 18:44
NordicBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -5.43%E -2.11%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 18:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 17:04
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 17:04
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.93%E -2.59%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 16:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 16:54
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 17:04
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 16:19
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 17:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 17:04
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 17:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 17:04
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.57%E -3.02%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 17:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 18:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 16:40
888sport🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 16:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 16:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 16:39
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.16%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 17:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -6.90%E -2.73%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -3.93%E -2.59%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 18:44
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.00%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.00%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.00%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 17:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.00%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.20%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 17:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.74%E -3.52%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.63%EV -6.46%E -4.37%K -13.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 18:39
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.90%EV -8.74%E -3.52%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.10%EV -8.36%E -5.76%K -18.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 16:19
Dabble (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -9.84%E -4.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.30%E -2.16%K -6.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 18:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-08-15 18:49
Novig◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-08-15 19:04
Matchbook◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-08-15 19:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%0.9%2026-08-15 18:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%0.9%2026-08-15 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%0.9%2026-08-15 18:49
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%1.1%2026-08-15 17:34
Polymarket◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%1.1%2026-08-15 18:59
Smarkets◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.49%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.51%2.2%2026-08-15 19:00
BetOpenly◎2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01%2.4%2026-08-15 19:05