Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays v Cincinnati Reds

2026-09-25 23:08 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Predicción 55.17%1.81momio equitativo
EV -1.79%
Ventaja -1.01%
Kelly -2.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.55%55.23%55.17%56.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.641.721.731.7860.98%58.03%57.80%56.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visitante)

Predicción 44.83%2.23momio equitativo
EV -2.28%
Ventaja -1.05%
Kelly -1.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.72%44.77%44.83%45.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.992.122.122.1850.25%47.14%47.17%45.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Toronto Blue Jays (Local): 55.17%; Cincinnati Reds (Visitante): 44.83%. Para Toronto Blue Jays (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.81. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.78, con un valor esperado de -1.79%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -1.79%E -1.01%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -2.28%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-25 02:15
Caesars🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.44%E -1.97%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-24 21:04
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.44%E -1.97%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-24 22:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.44%E -1.97%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-25 01:50
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.00%E -2.30%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.18%E -1.47%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-24 20:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.00%E -2.30%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-24 20:55
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.00%E -2.30%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-24 21:10
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.00%E -2.30%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-24 23:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.00%E -2.30%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 02:35
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -4.00%E -2.30%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -4.52%E -2.12%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-24 21:24
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.00%E -2.30%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 21:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 00:20
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 00:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.97%E -2.34%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 21:29
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.97%E -2.34%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 22:33
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -5.42%E -2.57%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 02:10
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 20:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 21:30
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 21:15
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 22:40
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 00:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 00:20
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.55%E -2.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 01:14
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.10%E -2.97%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-24 22:59
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.10%E -2.97%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -4.07%E -1.90%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-24 21:30
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.10%E -2.97%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.97%E -2.34%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 22:35
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.10%E -2.97%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.97%E -2.34%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 22:40
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.10%E -2.97%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.97%E -2.34%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 22:40
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.10%E -2.97%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.97%E -2.34%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-25 02:00
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.10%E -2.97%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-24 20:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.10%E -2.97%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-24 21:30
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.65%E -3.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 21:19
888sport🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.65%E -3.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 21:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.65%E -3.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 21:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.65%E -3.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 21:00
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.65%E -3.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 00:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.65%E -3.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-24 21:29
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.65%E -3.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.87%E -2.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-24 23:10
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.86%E -4.71%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.62%E -1.69%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-24 20:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -9.51%E -5.80%K -14.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -10.35%E -5.17%K -10.35%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-24 21:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.82%EV -9.51%E -5.80%K -14.87%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.18%EV -10.80%E -5.43%K -10.91%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-24 23:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-09-25 02:20
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-09-25 01:05
Polymarket◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-09-25 00:05
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%10.2%2026-09-24 21:30
ProphetX◎1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%10.6%2026-09-25 01:05