The School of Odds
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Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-08-10 23:07 UTC

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 2–1 Boston Red Sox

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

62 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Prediction 40.02%2.50fair odd
EV +0.852%
Edge +0.338%
Kelly +0.560%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.90%40.11%39.95%41.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.382.5244.44%42.06%42.02%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 59.98%1.67fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.627%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%59.89%60.05%61.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.601.601.6564.52%62.46%62.50%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Blue Jays (Local): 40.02%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 59.98%. For Toronto Blue Jays (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.852%.

Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13%EV +0.852%E +0.338%K +0.560%G +0.005%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%EV -2.83%E -1.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-10 23:04
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%EV +0.051%E +0.021%K +0.034%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%EV -2.83%E -1.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-10 23:05
Pinnacle🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 39.42%EV -0.349%E -0.140%K -0.234%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.58%EV -2.83%E -1.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-10 23:00
GTbets🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 39.27%EV -0.349%E -0.140%K -0.234%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.73%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-10 23:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -0.749%E -0.302%K -0.506%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-10 23:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -0.749%E -0.302%K -0.506%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-10 23:05
FanDuel🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%EV -1.55%E -0.630%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%EV -2.23%E -1.37%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-10 22:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 40.24%EV -1.95%E -0.796%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.76%EV -1.03%E -0.627%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-10 19:19
BetUS🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.95%E -0.796%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-10 23:04
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -1.95%E -0.796%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-10 20:30
BetAnything🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.00%EV -2.75%E -1.13%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.00%EV -2.83%E -1.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-10 22:55
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -3.55%E -1.47%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -1.03%E -0.627%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-10 22:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -3.55%E -1.47%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-10 23:04
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.23%E -1.37%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-10 20:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.23%E -1.37%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-10 20:45
ReBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-10 20:30
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-10 22:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-10 23:00
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-10 23:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-10 23:04
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-10 23:05
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-10 23:05
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.63%E -2.91%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-10 23:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.63%E -2.91%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-10 20:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.03%E -4.54%K -12.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-10 20:30
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -4.35%E -1.82%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-10 19:24
SportsBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -4.35%E -1.82%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 22:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.83%E -1.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-10 18:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-10 20:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-10 20:35
Bet Right🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-10 22:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-10 23:00
NordicBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.15%E -2.17%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-10 23:05
Betsson🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.15%E -2.17%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-10 23:05
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.83%E -1.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-10 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.83%E -1.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-10 23:05
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 19:00
888sport🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:44
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:45
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:45
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:44
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:44
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 20:45
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 22:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.63%E -2.91%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-10 20:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-10 22:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-10 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -7.15%E -3.08%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-10 20:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -7.15%E -3.08%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-10 20:45
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -7.95%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.03%E -0.627%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-10 23:00
Dabble (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.95%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.83%E -1.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-10 23:00
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.95%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-10 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.95%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-10 22:54
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.95%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 20:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.95%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.03%E -4.54%K -12.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-10 23:03
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%EV -8.75%E -3.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -7.03%E -4.54%K -12.79%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-10 20:44
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.95%E -4.42%K -7.96%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-10 22:54
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.95%E -4.42%K -7.96%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-10 22:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-08-10 22:59
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-08-10 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-08-10 23:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-08-10 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-08-10 23:05
Polymarket◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-08-10 20:50
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-08-10 23:05
ProphetX◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-08-10 23:05
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%1.3%2026-08-10 23:05
BetOpenly◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.59%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41%2.6%2026-08-10 23:00