Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Rays v New York Mets

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 22:41 UTC

Final: Tampa Bay Rays 4–10 New York Mets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

65 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Rays (Local)

Prediction 62.49%1.60fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.804%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%62.47%62.50%63.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.541.541.5867.11%65.12%64.94%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 37.51%2.67fair odd
EV -0.216%
Edge -0.081%
Kelly -0.130%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.74%37.53%37.50%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.522.502.6641.67%39.64%40.00%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Rays (Local): 62.49%; New York Mets (Visit): 37.51%. For New York Mets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.66, with an expected value of -0.216%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%EV -1.27%E -0.804%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%EV -3.22%E -1.25%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-02 20:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -1.90%E -1.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -8.09%E -3.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 14:00
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.95%EV -2.52%E -1.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.05%EV -0.591%E -0.223%K -0.358%G +0.000%1.8%2026-09-02 20:53
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68%EV -2.52%E -1.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%EV -1.72%E -0.655%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-02 22:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68%EV -2.52%E -1.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%EV -1.72%E -0.655%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-02 22:30
GTbets🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.52%E -1.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -2.47%E -0.949%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-02 22:30
Everygame🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.52%E -1.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -2.47%E -0.949%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-02 22:21
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.52%E -1.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -3.22%E -1.25%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-02 22:20
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.18%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.82%EV -0.216%E -0.081%K -0.130%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-02 22:25
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
Bally Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:45
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 20:43
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.09%E -3.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.09%E -3.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 22:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.14%E -2.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.97%E -4.15%K -7.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 21:45
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -1.72%E -0.655%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-02 22:25
BetAnything🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -1.72%E -0.655%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-02 22:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.53%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -3.59%E -1.40%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 22:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.34%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 22:20
ReBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.34%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 22:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.34%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 22:29
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.72%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 22:25
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 21:45
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -6.97%E -2.81%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 20:44
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -3.77%E -2.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -6.97%E -2.81%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 20:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.47%E -0.949%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 20:55
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.47%E -0.949%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 22:25
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.34%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 21:10
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.34%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 22:30
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.34%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 22:25
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.34%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 22:29
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.34%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 22:25
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -5.47%E -2.17%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 22:25
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 20:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 20:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 20:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 20:45
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 20:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 22:25
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 22:25
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.39%E -2.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 14:44
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.84%EV -5.02%E -3.30%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.16%EV -3.59%E -1.40%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 22:25
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -5.02%E -3.30%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 22:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.02%E -3.30%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 20:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.02%E -3.30%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.09%E -3.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 21:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.02%E -3.30%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.09%E -3.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 21:45
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.47%E -0.949%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 22:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.64%E -3.74%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 22:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.34%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 22:25
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 22:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.22%E -2.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 22:25
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.09%E -3.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-02 22:28
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.27%E -4.18%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.09%E -3.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-02 22:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%EV -6.89%E -4.63%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%EV -8.47%E -3.47%K -5.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 22:24
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -6.89%E -4.63%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -9.97%E -4.15%K -7.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 21:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.59I 62.89%NM 63.78%2.80I 35.71%NM 36.22%-1.4%2026-09-02 22:30
Novig1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68%2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32%0.3%2026-09-02 20:20
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%0.5%2026-09-02 22:30
Matchbook1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-09-02 22:25
ProphetX1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-09-02 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-09-02 21:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-09-02 21:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-09-02 21:35
Polymarket1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-09-02 13:30
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-09-02 16:25