Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds

Inicio: 2026-06-06 00:16 UTC

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 10–3 Cincinnati Reds

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals (Local)

Predicción 56.39%1.77momio equitativo
EV -1.32%
Ventaja -0.751%
Kelly -1.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.84%56.43%56.42%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.691.691.7560.61%59.07%59.17%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visitante)

Predicción 43.61%2.29momio equitativo
EV -1.01%
Ventaja -0.444%
Kelly -0.794%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.86%43.57%43.58%44.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.122.202.202.2747.17%45.54%45.45%44.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: St. Louis Cardinals (Local): 56.39%; Cincinnati Reds (Visitante): 43.61%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.29. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.27, con un valor esperado de -1.01%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -1.32%E -0.751%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -3.19%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.2%2026-06-05 23:20
Everygame🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50%EV -1.88%E -1.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50%EV -1.44%E -0.639%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.7%2026-06-05 20:39
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%EV -1.88%E -1.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%EV -2.32%E -1.03%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.1%2026-06-05 23:50
GTbets🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.75%EV -2.44%E -1.41%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.25%EV -1.01%E -0.444%K -0.794%G +0.000%1.9%2026-06-05 15:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -2.44%E -1.41%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -2.32%E -1.03%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.4%2026-06-05 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -2.44%E -1.41%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -2.32%E -1.03%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.4%2026-06-05 15:09
BetUS🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -2.44%E -1.41%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -2.32%E -1.03%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.4%2026-06-05 22:50
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -1.44%E -0.639%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.7%2026-06-05 20:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -2.75%E -1.23%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-06-05 21:10
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-05 21:50
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-05 15:29
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-05 15:33
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.19%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-05 22:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%EV -3.62%E -1.64%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-05 15:39
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-05 09:59
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-05 09:58
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-05 21:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-05 21:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-05 15:10
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-05 15:09
Bovada🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.70%EV -4.50%E -2.05%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-05 22:29
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-05 15:40
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -5.37%E -2.47%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-05 15:40
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 15:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 23:20
Dabble (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 23:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.88%E -0.836%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-05 08:29
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-05 15:39
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-05 15:09
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-05 22:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-05 13:59
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV -4.50%E -2.05%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-05 15:29
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.37%E -2.47%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 20:10
Betsson🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.81%E -2.69%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-05 15:09
NordicBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.81%E -2.69%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-05 15:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:50
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:49
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:50
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:49
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:49
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:50
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:49
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:49
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 22:50
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-05 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-05 15:29
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 05:39
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 07:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 07:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 07:19
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-05 21:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-06 00:09
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-05 15:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.39%E -3.85%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-05 15:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-05 08:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -7.55%E -3.56%K -6.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-05 23:48
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00%2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00%0.2%2026-06-05 21:50
Novig1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-06-06 00:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-06-05 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-06-05 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-06-05 23:10
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-06-05 23:00
Polymarket1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-06-05 23:00
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-06-06 00:10
BetOpenly1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%2.0%2026-06-05 23:59
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%2.1%2026-06-05 22:50