Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals v Baltimore Orioles

Inicio: 2026-08-25 23:46 UTC

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 1–13 Baltimore Orioles

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals (Local)

Predicción 53.57%1.87momio equitativo
EV -0.355%
Ventaja -0.191%
Kelly -0.413%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.60%53.64%53.51%54.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.681.771.781.8659.52%56.34%56.18%53.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visitante)

Predicción 46.43%2.15momio equitativo
EV -0.181%
Ventaja -0.084%
Kelly -0.158%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.03%46.36%46.49%47.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.992.072.072.1550.25%48.25%48.31%46.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: St. Louis Cardinals (Local): 53.57%; Baltimore Orioles (Visitante): 46.43%. Para Baltimore Orioles (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.154. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.150, con un valor esperado de -0.181%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -0.355%E -0.191%K -0.413%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -3.90%E -1.88%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-25 23:29
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -0.355%E -0.191%K -0.413%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -3.90%E -1.88%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-25 23:29
DraftKings🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42%EV -1.43%E -0.775%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.58%EV -2.04%E -0.966%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-25 23:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-25 23:24
GTbets🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%EV -2.50%E -1.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%EV -1.57%E -0.743%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-25 23:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -2.50%E -1.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -2.04%E -0.966%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-25 23:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -2.50%E -1.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -2.04%E -0.966%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-25 23:24
Caesars🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -2.50%E -1.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -2.04%E -0.966%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-25 23:19
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -2.50%E -1.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -2.04%E -0.966%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-25 23:23
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -2.50%E -1.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -6.22%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 23:24
FanDuel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%EV -3.03%E -1.68%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%EV -0.646%E -0.302%K -0.566%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-25 23:14
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%EV -2.04%E -0.966%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-25 23:19
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%EV -2.04%E -0.966%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-25 23:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-25 23:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.90%E -1.88%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-25 23:19
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 23:19
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 23:19
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 23:19
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 23:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 23:19
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 23:30
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 23:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.22%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 23:19
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.22%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 23:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -6.68%E -3.32%K -6.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 23:24
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 23:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.10%E -2.29%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.90%E -1.88%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-25 23:34
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 23:38
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 23:39
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.75%E -2.83%K -5.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 23:19
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.75%E -2.83%K -5.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 23:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.15%E -3.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 23:19
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -5.18%E -2.92%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -0.181%E -0.084%K -0.158%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-25 23:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -5.18%E -2.92%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -0.181%E -0.084%K -0.158%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-25 23:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.18%E -2.92%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-25 04:09
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.18%E -2.92%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 22:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.71%E -3.25%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 23:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.71%E -3.25%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 23:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -5.71%E -3.25%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -7.15%E -3.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 23:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -1.57%E -0.743%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 23:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -1.57%E -0.743%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 23:19
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.43%E -1.65%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-25 23:14
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 23:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 23:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 23:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 23:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -6.78%E -3.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -1.57%E -0.743%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-25 23:19
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -6.78%E -3.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -1.57%E -0.743%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-25 23:19
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -6.78%E -3.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -1.57%E -0.743%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-25 23:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -6.78%E -3.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -1.57%E -0.743%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-25 23:19
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -6.78%E -3.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -1.57%E -0.743%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-25 23:19
Bally Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -6.78%E -3.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -1.57%E -0.743%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-25 23:19
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.32%E -4.23%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 23:19
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -7.32%E -4.23%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 21:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -7.32%E -4.23%K -10.03%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -7.61%E -3.82%K -7.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-25 23:18
Dabble (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.85%E -4.57%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-25 23:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%EV -8.39%E -4.91%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -3.43%E -1.65%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 23:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%EV -8.39%E -4.91%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -3.43%E -1.65%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 23:19
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.93%E -5.25%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-25 23:34
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.93%E -5.25%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-25 23:34
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%EV -10.00%E -5.95%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%EV -5.29%E -2.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-25 23:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%0.2%2026-08-25 23:39
Novig◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.75%0.4%2026-08-25 23:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-08-25 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-08-25 23:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-08-25 23:34
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-08-25 23:29
BetOpenly◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86%0.9%2026-08-25 23:34
Polymarket◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-25 23:14
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-08-25 23:34
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%2.3%2026-08-25 23:24