The School of Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers

2026-07-11 23:00 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 53.77%1.86fair odd
EV +12.91%
Edge +6.15%
Kelly +11.74%
Growth +1.51%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.88%53.77%53.77%53.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.781.941.942.1056%52%52%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Milwaukee Brewers (Visit)

Prediction 46.23%2.16fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.23%46.23%46.23%54.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.781.921.922.0756%52%52%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
MyBookie.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV +12.91%E +6.15%K +11.74%G +1.51%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -17.70%E -9.95%K -22.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-10 23:24
DraftKings1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -4.30%E -2.41%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -4.30%E -2.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-10 23:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (1 combination) +4.24%MyBookie.ag 2.10 (49.6%) / DraftKings 2.07 (50.4%)Show details
Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)Milwaukee Brewers (Visit)Margin
MyBookie.ag 2.10 (49.6%)DraftKings 2.07 (50.4%)+4.24%