The School of Odds
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Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:37 UTC

Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 4–3 Kansas City Royals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 52.02%1.92fair odd
EV -0.651%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.716%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.26%51.92%52.00%53.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.841.831.9157.80%54.29%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 47.98%2.08fair odd
EV -0.671%
Edge -0.324%
Kelly -0.627%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.48%48.08%48.00%49.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.971.982.0754.05%50.68%50.51%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 52.02%; Kansas City Royals (Visit): 47.98%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -0.651%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -0.651%E -0.341%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -7.39%E -3.83%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 16:39
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -0.651%E -0.341%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -7.39%E -3.83%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 16:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -0.651%E -0.341%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -7.39%E -3.83%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 16:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -0.651%E -0.341%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -7.39%E -3.83%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 16:39
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -1.69%E -0.895%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -7.87%E -4.10%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -1.69%E -0.895%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -7.87%E -4.10%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 16:39
Casumo🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -1.69%E -0.895%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -7.87%E -4.10%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 16:39
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -1.69%E -0.895%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -7.87%E -4.10%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 16:39
Bally Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -1.69%E -0.895%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -7.87%E -4.10%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 16:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -1.69%E -0.895%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -7.87%E -4.10%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 16:39
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 52.16%EV -2.21%E -1.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.84%EV -1.63%E -0.796%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-20 17:03
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -2.21%E -1.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -8.35%E -4.37%K -9.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 16:39
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.73%E -1.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -1.63%E -0.796%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-20 17:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.73%E -1.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.43%E -3.30%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 13:34
Fliff🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.73%E -1.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.43%E -3.30%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.27%EV -2.73%E -1.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.73%EV -9.31%E -4.93%K -10.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 16:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.27%EV -2.73%E -1.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.73%EV -9.31%E -4.93%K -10.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 16:39
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -3.25%E -1.75%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -0.671%E -0.324%K -0.627%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-20 17:24
GTbets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.55%EV -3.25%E -1.75%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.45%EV -1.15%E -0.559%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-20 14:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.43%EV -3.25%E -1.75%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.57%EV -1.63%E -0.796%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-20 14:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.43%EV -3.25%E -1.75%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.57%EV -1.63%E -0.796%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-20 14:44
BetAnything🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.19%EV -3.25%E -1.75%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.81%EV -2.59%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-20 16:39
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.77%E -2.04%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-20 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.77%E -2.04%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-20 15:39
MyBookie.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.77%E -2.04%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-20 15:44
Caesars🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.77%E -2.04%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.99%E -2.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 15:24
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.77%E -2.04%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.95%E -3.04%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 15:24
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.29%E -2.33%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.99%E -2.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-20 17:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -4.29%E -2.33%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -5.47%E -2.78%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 17:14
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 15:11
ReBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 15:39
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 16:24
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 17:34
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 13:39
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 15:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 15:34
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 15:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 16:59
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.99%E -2.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 15:04
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.99%E -2.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 16:24
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.99%E -2.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 16:24
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.99%E -2.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 15:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.99%E -2.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 15:35
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.43%E -3.30%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 17:34
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.43%E -3.30%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 13:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -7.39%E -3.83%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 13:44
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.35%E -4.37%K -9.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 15:10
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -4.81%E -2.63%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -11.23%E -6.07%K -13.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 16:39
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.33%E -2.93%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.07%E -1.52%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-20 17:13
DraftKings🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.48%EV -5.33%E -2.93%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.52%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-20 17:34
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.33%E -2.93%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-20 17:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -5.33%E -2.93%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.51%E -2.27%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 16:59
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.37%E -3.54%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 17:14
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.37%E -3.54%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.37%E -3.54%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 17:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.37%E -3.54%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 17:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.37%E -3.54%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -4.99%E -2.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -6.37%E -3.54%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -5.95%E -3.04%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 15:39
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.37%E -3.54%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.43%E -3.30%K -6.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 17:23
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.37%E -3.54%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.43%E -3.30%K -6.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 17:24
Dabble (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -7.41%E -4.16%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -1.63%E -0.796%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 16:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -7.93%E -4.48%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -6.91%E -3.56%K -7.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.21%EV -10.01%E -5.79%K -13.72%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.79%EV -9.31%E -4.93%K -10.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 17:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.63%-0.0%2026-09-20 17:14
Novig◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75%2.11I 47.39%NM 47.25%0.3%2026-09-20 17:23
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%0.4%2026-09-20 17:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%0.4%2026-09-20 17:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%0.4%2026-09-20 17:35
ProphetX◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.51%2.09I 47.85%NM 47.49%0.8%2026-09-20 17:34
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-09-20 17:09
Polymarket◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-09-20 16:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.53%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.47%1.3%2026-09-20 17:35
Smarkets◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72%1.7%2026-09-20 17:34