The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 22:41 UTC

Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 8–5 Kansas City Royals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 62.70%1.59fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.998%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%62.64%62.65%63.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.521.5769.44%65.81%65.79%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 37.30%2.68fair odd
EV -0.772%
Edge -0.290%
Kelly -0.465%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.27%37.36%37.35%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.562.552.6642.55%39.11%39.22%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 62.70%; Kansas City Royals (Visit): 37.30%. For Kansas City Royals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.66, with an expected value of -0.772%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.44%EV -1.57%E -0.998%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.56%EV -2.64%E -1.01%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-18 12:44
Everygame🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.19%E -1.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-18 14:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.19%E -1.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-17 20:15
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.18%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.82%EV -0.772%E -0.290%K -0.465%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-18 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%EV -1.52%E -0.575%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-18 11:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%EV -1.52%E -0.575%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-18 11:35
GTbets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.83%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.17%EV -2.26%E -0.864%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-18 11:35
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-18 11:34
BetAnything🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-18 12:59
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-18 15:20
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-18 00:34
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 13:39
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -3.45%E -2.24%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -7.49%E -3.02%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 04:15
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -3.45%E -2.24%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -7.49%E -3.02%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 04:14
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-18 12:15
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-18 10:20
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-18 08:20
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.59%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%EV -4.50%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-18 08:00
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 09:55
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 10:45
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 05:45
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 08:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 10:05
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -5.25%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:15
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 20:35
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 23:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 13:35
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 03:54
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 13:35
Dabble (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:45
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -4.70%E -3.09%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -3.76%E -1.46%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-18 12:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.70%E -3.09%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 08:20
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.70%E -3.09%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 08:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -4.70%E -3.09%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -5.62%E -2.22%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 12:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.70%E -3.09%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 05:40
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.33%E -3.53%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 14:48
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.33%E -3.53%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 15:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.33%E -3.53%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 08:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.33%E -3.53%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 08:18
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:19
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:20
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:20
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:20
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:20
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.89%E -0.719%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:20
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 15:19
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.33%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -3.38%E -1.31%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 12:15
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 19:40
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 05:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 05:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 05:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 05:10
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 05:38
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 05:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 11:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 15:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 15:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.68%EV -8.46%E -5.80%K -18.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -12.34%E -5.25%K -9.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 10:40
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -9.72%E -6.75%K -22.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43%0.2%2026-09-18 15:30
BetOpenly◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43%0.2%2026-09-18 14:20
Matchbook◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%1.0%2026-09-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%1.0%2026-09-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%1.0%2026-09-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%1.0%2026-09-18 13:55
Polymarket◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-09-18 09:50
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-09-18 12:40
Novig◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-09-18 15:22
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%1.7%2026-09-18 15:25