The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 00:15 UTC

Final: New York Yankees 9–0 Boston Red Sox

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Yankees (Local)

Prediction 54.83%1.82fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.777%
Kelly +1.69%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%54.49%54.83%57.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.731.8561.73%57.40%57.80%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 45.17%2.21fair odd
EV +0.726%
Edge +0.326%
Kelly +0.590%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.97%45.51%45.17%48.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.112.122.2351.55%47.44%47.17%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Yankees (Local): 54.83%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 45.17%. For New York Yankees (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV +1.44%E +0.777%K +1.69%G +0.024%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -6.05%E -2.91%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-29 23:46
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV +0.341%E +0.187%K +0.411%G +0.001%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -11.92%E -6.11%K -12.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 00:00
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -0.207%E -0.114%K -0.252%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -4.69%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-29 23:55
ReBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -0.207%E -0.114%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -10.57%E -5.34%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 23:59
theScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%EV -0.755%E -0.417%K -0.932%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%EV -3.34%E -1.56%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-30 00:00
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55%EV -1.30%E -0.724%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%EV -2.44%E -1.13%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.9%2026-09-30 00:00
GTbets🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.30%E -0.724%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-30 00:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -1.30%E -0.724%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -3.79%E -1.78%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-30 00:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -1.30%E -0.724%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -3.79%E -1.78%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-30 00:00
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.30%E -0.724%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.66%E -4.83%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 23:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.30%E -0.724%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.92%E -6.11%K -12.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 00:00
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.30%E -0.724%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.92%E -6.11%K -12.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-29 23:48
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.30%E -0.724%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.92%E -6.11%K -12.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-29 23:50
BetAnything🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.34%EV -1.85%E -1.03%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66%EV -3.79%E -1.78%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-29 23:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -2.40%E -1.35%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -12.37%E -6.38%K -13.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-30 00:00
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.30%EV -2.95%E -1.67%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.70%EV -1.08%E -0.493%K -0.908%G +0.000%2.2%2026-09-29 22:45
Caesars🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -3.50%E -1.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -3.79%E -1.78%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-29 23:59
FanDuel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.50%E -1.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.24%E -2.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-29 19:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.50%E -1.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.24%E -2.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-29 17:10
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -4.05%E -2.31%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-29 21:39
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.05%E -2.31%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -4.24%E -2.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-29 23:59
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.05%E -2.31%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-29 22:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.05%E -2.31%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-29 22:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.05%E -2.31%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-29 12:19
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.05%E -2.31%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-30 00:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.05%E -2.31%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.05%E -2.91%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-29 23:59
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.59%E -2.64%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-29 22:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.59%E -2.64%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-29 20:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.59%E -2.64%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-29 22:40
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.59%E -2.64%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-29 19:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-29 22:30
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-29 22:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-29 22:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-30 00:00
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-30 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-30 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.34%E -1.56%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-30 00:00
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.34%E -1.56%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-30 00:00
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.34%E -1.56%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-30 00:00
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.24%E -2.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-29 18:35
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 18:35
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 20:20
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 21:10
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.40%E -3.61%K -7.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-29 21:45
Dabble (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.69%E -3.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-29 23:34
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.69%E -3.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.24%E -2.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-29 22:25
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.69%E -3.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.24%E -2.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-29 23:55
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -6.24%E -3.65%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -2.44%E -1.13%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-29 21:40
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.24%E -3.65%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-30 00:00
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.24%E -3.65%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-29 23:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.79%E -3.99%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-29 22:50
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.79%E -3.99%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.79%E -3.99%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 00:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.79%E -3.99%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 00:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -7.88%E -4.69%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV +0.726%E +0.326%K +0.590%G +0.004%4.4%2026-09-29 23:59
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -7.88%E -4.69%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV +0.726%E +0.326%K +0.590%G +0.004%4.4%2026-09-29 23:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -7.88%E -4.69%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV +0.726%E +0.326%K +0.590%G +0.004%4.4%2026-09-29 23:59
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -7.88%E -4.69%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV +0.726%E +0.326%K +0.590%G +0.004%4.4%2026-09-29 23:59
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%EV -8.98%E -5.41%K -13.61%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.62%EV -6.95%E -3.38%K -6.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-30 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -10.08%E -6.14%K -15.74%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -9.66%E -4.83%K -9.66%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-29 23:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.00%EV -11.17%E -6.90%K -18.02%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.00%EV -10.57%E -5.34%K -10.78%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-29 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-09-30 00:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-09-29 23:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-09-30 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-09-30 00:00
ProphetX◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.25%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.75%0.7%2026-09-30 00:00
Novig◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-09-30 00:00
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-09-29 21:55
Polymarket◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-09-29 22:30
Smarkets◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.5%2026-09-30 00:00
BetOpenly◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%2.0%2026-09-29 23:59